The Municipal Recovery of 2010 Begins Now
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And now, we begin the climb out of the financial quagmire that has afflicted us for the past year. The national economic recovery left Union Station eight months ago. Today, the Hometown Limited is about to slowly pull out of the station. We have a long climb to get back to the 2008-2009 level, but the hemorrhaging has been arrested. As one large city financial analyst explained to me last week –
“We fell into a deep well and now someone has thrown us a two foot step ladder and a rope. We are still in the well, but we are working our way out.”
Nationally, 2010 has the potential to get back to the prerecession level. As of today, the expansion is very brisk. Productivity gains are very high when compared to the historical record. The unemployed are starting to be reintegrated into the expanding economy. The combination of rapid productivity advances and the expansion of the workforce could result in the most powerful recovery in history. For cities, it will not be this year that the total decline is erased, maybe not even next year.
Regardless of the rate of recovery, cities will be slow to acknowledge improvements in revenue, claiming they are only temporary. It will probably be six months before the evidence of local recovery is so pervasive that city management will let go of their disaster scenarios. Now, we need to move from the damage control mode to foundation building for 2011 and forward. At this point, you should call off the attack dogs that have been knocking down outrageous claims of financial ruin.
Publicly, your rhetoric should be silenced – all rhetoric. You should be doing all of your “public talking” with “not-so-public groups” that are opinion leaders – chamber of commerce, civic clubs, political parties. Your message needs to be “law and order”, “personal safety”, and “quality of life.” A new foundation of public opinion has to be built from scratch. The base that provided support for damage control will no longer serve our needs.
So how will this “recovery” manifest itself? When will we see it and how will we recognize it? Well, for many cities it arrived this month – April 2010. For most cities, it will show itself next month – May 2010.
If your city has a fiscal year end of June 30th, you will not see any sign of recovery in the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) until January 1, 2012 – ancient history by then. The first fiscal year to show growth will be FYE June 30, 2011. The CAFR will not be released until six months later.
The same city will not show any relief in its budget document until April 2012. For the 2011-2012 budget (released April 2011), most cities will attempt to explain away any revenue increases as temporary and milk the recession for one more year. Obviously, the CAFR and the budget are not going to be timely enough for our purposes. We have to look for other sources.
The best place to find current measurements of your city’s financial well being is something like a sales tax or occupancy tax – a number that is reported in a timely manner and is not easily manipulated. But, even this information requires honest and accurate statistical analysis. Simply comparing one month to another month is not good enough. Something has to be done to control for seasonal variations and timing problems with the actual receipt of the funds by your city.
Another new reality is the amount of information readily available and the real time scrutiny that is given to most remarks. While it was always been important, being totally honest and logical is mandatory today. Speaking in platitudes and cliques no longer works in most arenas. You just come off looking like a fool. You have to put the necessary time and effort into your remarks just to keep them from backfiring. Making them effective requires even more. Most police associations should hire a professional spokesperson. Sure, everyone will know that the speaker is a “hired gun.” It does not matter. Saying the right thing in the right manner is more important. The proper presentation of your message and talking points far outweighs any purity status of being an amateur.
You do have a message and a set of talking points? Only kidding. You had better seriously consider getting them – now. Do you know what your message should be? Do you know what your talking points should address? You need a short speech, too. You better have the answers for a long list of FAQ – frequently asked questions or negative assertions. This time it is going to be more difficult. The heady days of post 9-11 are gone. The cry from the small government crowd has become “I am mad as hell and I am not taking it anymore.”
Are you ready for some FAQ? Okay, here are the rules. I make the assertions or ask the questions and your job is to field them cleanly and put me out at first base - all in three short sentences or less. You cannot refer me to some book or website for the answer. You have to do it all with your three sentences. Remember, you are talking to the people who decide your pay, not your membership. And do not say you deserve what you receive. It is a waste of breath. Answer from your antagonist’s perspective - “I am mad as hell.”
What You Must Deal With |
1. You are paid more than most of us taxpayers 2. Your 90% pension at age fifty is obscene 3. The city can no longer afford your pension 4. Your pension costs the city 45% of your salary 5. You contribute nothing to your pension 6. Retired police officers have second careers 7. Police officers receive Social Security too 8. Your department is the highest paid in area 9. Your cost-of-living raises have exceed inflation 10. You get another 5% with a step raise 11. The two combined run about 9% per year 12. No one else is getting 9% pay raises 13. Why should we condone such obscene pay 14. You have priced yourself out of the market 15. We can have a police department for much less |
Before you throw up your hands, let me tell you that all of these assertions and questions can be effectively answered and dispatched. Remember three sentences or less – three short and punchy sentences. Make them good, not the usual diatribe. Make them convincing. Forget about fairness. If you would like your answers graded (free of course), send them to editor@policepay.net and we will send them back to you with your grade and our comments.
The POLICEPAYJOURNAL is published by POLICEPAY.NET, Norman, Oklahoma, 73069 (405) 701-8616
